Prediction of Chicken Meat Availability in Cilegon City Using iThink Dynamic Simulation Model

Muhamad Haikal  Firdaus; Ahmad Sopyan Sauri; Syaifa Turrohman; Eneng Tita Tosida; Kotim Subandi; Victor Ilyas Sugara

doi:10.47194/orics.v6i1.369

Authors

Muhamad Haikal Firdaus
muhamadhaikal@gmail.com
Ahmad Sopyan Sauri
Syaifa Turrohman
Eneng Tita Tosida
Kotim Subandi
Victor Ilyas Sugara

Abstract

The availability of chicken meat is a crucial factor in maintaining price stability and food security in Cilegon City. The increasing demand, influenced by population growth and consumption patterns, must be balanced with optimal supply from farmers and distributors. This study aims to predict the availability of chicken meat using a dynamic simulation model based on iThink. This model is built with a stocks and flows approach and causal loop diagrams to understand the dynamics of the system involving production, import, distribution, consumption, and external factors such as government policies and weather conditions. The simulation results show that the balance of supply and demand is greatly influenced by the level of local production, per capita consumption levels, and import policies. The simulation scenario also reveals that increasing production efficiency and optimizing distribution can increase the availability of chicken meat in the market by 15-20% in the next five years. This model is expected to be a tool for stakeholders in formulating more adaptive policies to maintain the stability of supply and prices of chicken meat in Cilegon City.

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