Forecasting Model of the Effect of Vaccination on the Number of Covid-19 Cases in West Java Province

https://doi.org/10.47194/ijgor.v4i4.242

Authors

  • Nazihah Nazihah Mathematics Undergraduate Study Program, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Universitas Padjadjaran,Jatinangor, Indonesia
  • Julita Nahar Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Universitas Padjadjaran, Jatinangor, Indonesia
  • Sudradjat Supian Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Universitas Padjadjaran, Jatinangor, Indonesia

Abstract

COVID-19 adalah virus yang disebabkan oleh SARS-CoV-2 (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2) dan pertama kali ditemukan di Wuhan, Hubei, China. Selain menggunakan masker dan melakukan social distancing, cara lain untuk mencegah paparan COVID-19 adalah dengan memberikan dosis vaksin COVID-19 lengkap, yang meliputi dosis pertama dan kedua dari vaksin yang sama, serta dosis booster tambahan untuk peningkatan dosis. kekebalan. Vaksinasi adalah suatu proses di dalam tubuh yang membuat seseorang menjadi sangat kebal atau terlindungi dari suatu penyakit, sehingga jika di kemudian hari terinfeksi penyakit tersebut, mereka tidak akan sakit atau hanya mengalami gejala ringan. Tujuan dari penelitian ini adalah membangun model peramalan untuk mengetahui dampak vaksinasi terhadap jumlah kasus COVID-19 di Provinsi Jawa Barat dan memprediksi jumlah kasus COVID-19 di Provinsi Jawa Barat dengan menggunakan metode regresi linier berganda. Data penelitian yang digunakan terdiri dari jumlah kasus COVID-19 dan penerima dosis vaksin pertama, kedua, dan booster dalam kurun waktu 13 Januari 2021 sampai dengan 22 Januari 2023. Data tersebut diperoleh dari situs resmi PT. Diskes Jabar dan Vaksin Kemkes. Hasil uji statistik dengan kadar alpha 5% menunjukkan bahwa diantara vaksin pertama, kedua, dan booster, hanya vaksin pertama dan kedua yang memberikan dampak signifikan, artinya ada pengaruh efektifitas vaksinasi terhadap jumlah kasus COVID-19. kasus di Provinsi Jawa Barat.

References

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Published

2023-11-17

Issue

Vol. 4 No. 4 (2023): International Journal of Global Operations Research (IJGOR), Nopember 2023

Section

Articles
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